Atlantic versus Pacific Agreement in Agri-food Sectors: Does the Winner Take it All?

Two main regional trade agreements are currently under negotiation: The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The former involves the United States and the European Union and deals with the removal of remaining tariffs and the harmonization of non-tariff measures, while the latter currently includes the United States and 11 other countries and focuses mainly on tariffs. Trade liberalization of the agri-food sector is a sensitive topic in both TTIP and TPP discussions. This paper first provides an overview of the current flows and trade barriers. Using a general equilibrium model of international trade (the MIRAGE model), it then assesses the potential impact of these two agreements on agri-food trade and value added. Results suggest that the US have a huge interest in both agreements for their agri-food sectors, while almost all their partners and third countries would benefit less and even register losses in some sectors. The two agreements however do not compete much one with the other, since all defensive and offensive interests of contracting parties are complementary. Finally, the Atlantic trade may be impacted by the inclusion of standards harmonization within the Pacific Agreement but not by its extension to additional members (e.g. China or India)