DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR POULTRY FEEDS: IMPLICATIONS FOR WHEAT AND MAIZE PRODUCTION IN BANGLADESH

Wheat and maize are important components of poultry feeds. The demand for wheat and maize, therefore, is expected to increase with the currently experienced sharp growth of poultry farms in Bangladesh. This analysis carries out projections of demand for poultry feeds and its implications for wheat and maize production in Bangladesh over the next 20 years. Under the scenario of rural consumption data from FMRSP and urban consumption data from HES source, and fixed income elasticity of demand, the Demand Analysis Approach projects the use of total grains (as poultry feeds) as 665, 746, 826 and 898 thousand metric tons, for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. Under the scenario of trend growth rate of poultry population and commercial farms taken as equal to current population growth rate, the Trend Analysis Approach projects the total grains as 683, 740, 801 and 867 thousand metric tons, for these years respectively. The use of grain for poultry feeds for the base year 2000 is estimated to be 631 thousand metric tons. Of this, wheat accounts for 22 and maize accounts for 78 per cent. The requirement of wheat as poultry feed is only 8 per cent of the total domestic production while the requirement of maize as poultry feed is nearly 8 times its domestic production. Our field survey suggests that one of the major reasons of maize production gaining no popularity in Bangladesh relates to lack of incentives on the part of the cultivators. Some motivational steps and market interventions are, therefore, needed in this respect