Incorporating Climate Change Impacts in Forest Market Models

Climate change induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as fossil fuel combustion, conversion of forest land, agriculture, and industry has emerged as one of the most compelling issues of our time. Forests can play a central role in emissions abatement efforts through afforestation, improved forest management, and utilization of biomass for energy production. Identifying effective mitigation opportunities is difficult in that it involves a complex interaction between shifts in forest investment, harvest rates, and utilization as well as the associated market responses via prices and trade levels. Forest sector models are being increasingly utilized to identify efficient policy signals that reduce GHG emissions levels to meet both domestic and international climate change goals. Their ability to simulate climate change policies vary as they differ in geographic scope, intertemporal dynamics, product incorporation, and forest growth representation. First, we summarize an array of studies linking commonly applied forest sector models with vegetation models projections of climate change impacts. We then discuss issues that may influence a model’s ability to simulate a policy or impact of a changing climate on forests. We conclude with suggestions for future modeling research challenges and opportunities