EFEITOS DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NO SETOR AGRÍCOLA DO ESTADO DE MINAS GERAIS

This paper aimed to analyze the effects of climate change on the agricultural sector of Minas Gerais. Methodologically, we used the Ricardian model, which allowed us to estimate how changes in climate, in different counties, may affect the farmers’ land values. The climate change projections were based on forecasts of temperature and precipitation (A1B and A2 scenarios) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In all simulation periods, on average, the results indicated that the land values may have a small increase. However, this result should not give the false impression that agriculture in Minas Gerais would not be adversely affected by climate change. When we consider the regional results, approximately 60% of the counties may suffer high losses, and these may reach R$24 million in 2020. Therefore, policymakers should closely observe the impact assessments in order to identify the most effective adaptation options. It will be necessary to program local and decentralized actions, allowing more flexibility and more beneficial results locally