FORECASTS OF FARM ANIMAL PRODUCTION IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND IN THE U.S.

The purpose of the analysis is to forecast livestock and poultry numbers for New England and the U. S. The effect of increasing feed transportation rates on these numbers is also examined. The direct estimates of the reduced form equations are utilized in forecasting numbers for seven livestock and poultry classes. Forecast rules of thumb are specified in the simplified lag model. A large model consisting of 26 predetermined variables yields very high degrees of accuracy with errors mostly less than one percent