Characterizing the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is however scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important to designing energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government Research, Development, and Demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts’ implied public RD&D ...
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different...
Making informed estimates of future energy technology costs is central to understanding the cost of ...
Making informed estimates of future energy technology costs is central to understanding the cost of ...
Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions in...
<p><b>Table 3.</b> Estimates of effects on variation in nuclear costs. <em>Y</em>...
<p><strong>Figure 2.</strong> RD&D and technology cost with and without observable expert, technolog...
Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions in...
<p><b>Table 2.</b> Estimates of expert's elicited 50th percentile of overnight ca...
<p><strong>Figure 1.</strong> Elicitation results for large-scale Gen. III/III+ reactor systems for ...
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different...
Expert elicitations of future energy technology costs can improve energy policy design by explicitly...
Expert elicitations of future energy technology costs can improve energy policy design by explicitly...
Expert elicitations are frequently used to characterize future technology outcomes. However their us...
Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology out-comes. H...
In this paper we standardize, compare, and aggregate results from thirteen surveys of technology exp...
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different...
Making informed estimates of future energy technology costs is central to understanding the cost of ...
Making informed estimates of future energy technology costs is central to understanding the cost of ...
Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions in...
<p><b>Table 3.</b> Estimates of effects on variation in nuclear costs. <em>Y</em>...
<p><strong>Figure 2.</strong> RD&D and technology cost with and without observable expert, technolog...
Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions in...
<p><b>Table 2.</b> Estimates of expert's elicited 50th percentile of overnight ca...
<p><strong>Figure 1.</strong> Elicitation results for large-scale Gen. III/III+ reactor systems for ...
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different...
Expert elicitations of future energy technology costs can improve energy policy design by explicitly...
Expert elicitations of future energy technology costs can improve energy policy design by explicitly...
Expert elicitations are frequently used to characterize future technology outcomes. However their us...
Expert elicitations are now frequently used to characterize uncertain future technology out-comes. H...
In this paper we standardize, compare, and aggregate results from thirteen surveys of technology exp...
Probabilistic estimates of the cost and performance of future nuclear energy systems under different...
Making informed estimates of future energy technology costs is central to understanding the cost of ...
Making informed estimates of future energy technology costs is central to understanding the cost of ...