Prospects for Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from British Columbia: An Application of Monte Carlo Cost-Benefit Analysis

British Columbia’s natural gas industry is currently facing competitive pressures from other gas-producing jurisdictions in North America. The emergence of shale gas developments has resulted in natural gas prices falling dramatically. Nonetheless, British Columbia is positioned to take advantage of growing markets in Asia that have considerably higher prices than in North America through the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in carrier ships. This paper aims to assess the economic viability of an LNG industry in British Columbia by analyzing world LNG prices and trade, market development, and costs through a Monte Carlo risk assessment