Tajikistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change

Tajikistan is classified by the World Bank as one of the CIS countries that are most vulnerable to climate change risks. This paper provides a closer look at a set of variables that determine Tajikistan’s vulnerability to risk in general and to climate change risk in particular. After presenting some background information on Tajikistan (Chapter 1), we provide a conceptual introduction to vulnerability and discuss some quantitative approaches to vulnerability assessment that have been recently applied in the literature (Chapters 2-4). We then use official statistical data for Tajikistan to assess quantitatively a range of basic variables that are recognized in the literature as determinants or drivers of vulnerability (Chapter 5). These variables include measures of income and poverty, debt and financial insecurity, agricultural land and livestock endowments, as well as population density and irrigation as measures of stress on land and water resources. Farm commercialization and diversification strategies are considered as factors that increase family incomes and reduce risk, thus mitigating vulnerability. The statistical analysis provides a quantitative picture of the components of Tajikistan’s vulnerability and their changes over time. In the end we briefly consider food insecurity and its implications for Tajikistan’s vulnerability (Chapter 6). The concluding chapter presents a summary list of variables that can be used to assess the dimensions of vulnerability and resilience for Tajikistan.