Forecasting Price Trends in the U.S. Avocado (Persea americana Mill.) Market

The United States is the world’s leading importer and second-largest producer of avocados. U.S. per capita consumption increased from 0.69 kg in 1998 to 1.48 kg in 2007. The factors responsible include aggressive promotion of the health benefits, increased disposable income, and a rapidly growing Hispanic population. Such factors enabled the prices of avocados to remain fairly attractive over the period. However, with the recent downturn in the U.S. economy and prospects of further increases in supplies of avocados, there are concerns that prices could fall substantially. With the aid of multiple-regression analysis, this paper forecasts avocado prices up to the year 2012