A Test of the New Variant Famine Hypothesis: Panel Survey Evidence from Zambia

The new variant famine (NVF) hypothesis postulates that HIV/AIDS is eroding agrarian livelihoods and making rural communities more sensitive and less resilient to drought and other shocks. Although it has not previously been subjected to rigorous econometric testing, NVF has become a high profile but controversial part of the debate on HIV/AIDS and food crises. In this paper, an econometric analysis using panel data from Zambia reveals that HIV/AIDS exacerbates the effects of drought on crop output per hectare among smallholder farming communities in low rainfall areas and where land-to-labor ratios are high. These findings support the NVF hypothesis