A STATISTICAL MODEL OF THE PRIMARY AND DERIVED MARKET LEVELS IN THE U.S. BEEF INDUSTRY

An annual dynamic model of the primary and derived levels of the U.S. beef industry was estimated by rational distributed lags. Geometric rational lags at the retail level were instrumental in establishing prices in the dressed meat trade and the slaughter and feeder levels. Polynomial rational lags characterized primary inventory supply, which, along with cattle and corn prices, determined the production of fed and nonfed beef. The results suggest that the short- and long-term market behavior in the beef industry is better understood when higher and lower order market interactions are taken into account