PREDICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS OF THE MIDDLE EAST IN 1990

This paper develops the theoretical framework and methodology for predicting the potential for agricultural imports in a group of reasonably homogeneous countries. The cross-section model proposed is economical in data needs and gives a good fit when applied to a group of 17 Middle Eastern countries. A method is presented for treating heteroscedasticity problems in some equations. The model should be particularly useful to exporters contemplating large investments in market expansion in specific countries and needing information on long-term sales potential. A practical application suggests important guidelines for efforts to expand sales of U.S. agricultural products in the Middle East