THE U.S. APPLE INDUSTRY: ECONOMETRIC MODEL AND PROJECTIONS

A dynamic model of the U.S. apple industry, including relationships for bearing acres, production, utilization, and allocation to the fresh, canned, frozen, juice, dried and other markets, is specified. Demands for each of these markets are modeled. Model coefficients are obtained using Zellner's seemingly unrelated regression procedure and data from 1971 through 1990. Elasticities and flexibilities are compared with other studies. Projections indicate that price fluctuations will continue in the industry when acreage is held at 1990 levels. A ten percent increase in fresh exports strengthens all apple prices. However, a ten percent decrease in the price of juice imports mitigates some of this effect