AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE NORTH DAKOTA CATTLE INDUSTRY

The analysis was conducted to evaluate the impacts of both the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (FAIR) and the cattle cycle on the livestock enterprises. The North Dakota Representative Farm and Ranch Model, which uses the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute price projections as an input, was developed and used for this analysis. Net farm income and farm debt-to-asset ratios for the average and large beef cattle farms were analyzed. The U.S. cattle industry has been characterized by cyclical variations in production and prices. It appears that the current cattle cycle is in the final stages of expansion. Cattle numbers continued to increase during 1995, but at a slow rate. Industry estimates are that the bottom of cattle prices will occur in late 1996 or 1997. Price recovery is projected to start sometime in 1998 as inventory numbers decline. Prices are forecast to rise through 2002. Net farm income for the representative beef cattle farms is projected to follow the cattle cycle with the lowest net incomes during 1997- 1999. Net farm income for most representative beef cattle farms recovers by 2002-2003. The debt-to-asset ratios for the representative beef cattle farms will likely rise throughout the forecast period. FAPRI Note: Figures are not included in the machine readable copy--contact the authors for more information