1999 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS 1999-2008

Net farm income for most representative farms in 2008 will be higher than in 1999. However, low profit farms, which consist of 25% of the farms in the study, may have a negative net farm income throughout the forecasting period and may not have financial resiliency to survive. This is true under both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. All farms except low profit farms may do well under the optimistic scenario, while only high profit farms may be able to survive under the pessimistic scenario. Cropland prices are projected to remain constant. Cash rental rates are projected to fall slightly. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will remain unchanged throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low profit and small size farms are higher than those for large and high profit farms. Under the optimistic scenario, all North Dakota farms, except for the low profit farm, fair well. Under the pessimistic scenario, only the high profit farm maintains its net income at a level close to the 1998 level