Box-Jenkins Forecasting Models: Comment

Two recent papers in this Review (Vol 47, No.2, August 1979) set out to evaluate alternative forecasting techniques applied in the Australian beef market. The two papers: "Forecasting NSW Beef Production: An Evaluation of Alternative Techniques," by C. Gellatly, and "Comparing the Box-Jenkins and Econometric Techniques for Forecasting Beef Prices" by I.J. Bourke both give rise for some concern at the choice of Box-Jenkins models which were estimated. In consequence the subsequent comparative model evaluations may reflect rather more poorly on the technique than they otherwise might. Although my comments have some features common to both papers, it will be appropriate to deal with each individually