Regional Growth Impacts on Agricultural Land Development: A Spatial Model for Three States

In this study we attempt to understand the relationship between regional growth in population, employment, and per capita income, and farmland development in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. A spatial simultaneous equations model is estimated using county-level data. Results indicate that while county income growth and agricultural land value increases in neighboring counties increase the rate of farmland loss, growth in county agricultural land values, increases in agricultural land density in neighboring counties, and increases in agricultural income per farm reduce farmland losses. Farmland protection policies were not significant in reducing agricultural land development. This approach, focused on regional growth, provides insight into linkages between growth and agricultural land development that can potentially enhance land use planning