Climate change threatens the future viability of translocated populations

Aim The dynamic nature of climate change diminishes the effectiveness of static approaches to nature conservation. Areas that were once suitable for species may no longer be suitable, and areas that are suitable now, may be unsuitable in the future. Despite increasing global awareness of the threats posed by climate change, it remains poorly accounted for in conservation programmes, such as translocation. In this study, we project changes in climate suitability for populations of ectothermic species that have been successfully established through translocation efforts. Location Biogeographical realms: Australasia, Holarctic, Palearctic and Nearctic. Methods We use species distribution models (SDMs) to project changes in macroclimatic suitability across 65 translocation recipient sites involving 38 ectothermic species. We consider optimistic (SSP126) and pessimistic (SSP370) scenarios of climate change for five general circulation models spanning three time horizons from 2021–2040 up to 2061–2080. Results Our models predict that at least 74% of recipient sites are projected to decline in climate suitability, regardless of the SSP scenario or time horizon. While recipient site suitability, scaled from 0 to 1 (low–high), was typically very high (>0.75, 39% of sites) under baseline climate conditions (1960–2010), models project a marked shift towards low suitability climates (