Predictors of actual five-year survival and recurrence after pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary adenocarcinoma: results from an international multicentre retrospective cohort study

Background: pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is recommended in fit patients with a resectable ampullary adenocarcinoma (AA). We aimed to identify predictors of five-year recurrence/survival.Methods: data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study, a multicentre retrospective study of PD patients with a confirmed head of pancreas or periampullary malignancy (June 1st, 2012-May 31st, 2015). Patients with AA who developed recurrence/died within five-years were compared to those who did not.Results: 394 patients were included and actual five-year survival was 54%. Recurrence affected 45% and the median time-to-recurrence was 14 months. Local only, local and distant, and distant only recurrence affected 34, 41 and 94 patients, respectively (site unknown: 7). Among those with recurrence, the most common sites were the liver (32%), local lymph nodes (14%) and lung/pleura (13%). Following multivariable tests, number of resected nodes, histological T stage > II, lymphatic invasion, perineural invasion (PNI), peripancreatic fat invasion (PPFI) and ≥1 positive resection margin correlated with increased recurrence and reduced survival. Furthermore, ≥1 positive margin, PPFI and PNI were all associated with reduced time-to-recurrence.Conclusions: this multicentre retrospective study of PD outcomes identified numerous histopathological predictors of AA recurrence. Patients with these high-risk features might benefit from adjuvant therapy.