Can Traffic Reduce Crime Rates: A Case Study of Gentrification and Granger-Causality in Washington, D.C.

This study looks at the causal forces behind the social relocation phenomenon known as gentrification. Location theory posits that ever increasing commute times coupled with falling crime rates incentivize the high-income population to move from the suburbs to the city. The high-income population demands real estate in the city, which drives up housing prices and displaces the low-income residents who already live in the city-center. This study applies location theory to Washington, D.C. in an attempt to explain the gentrification process that is underway. Long-term, city-wide commute and crime data are analyzed to explore the relationship travel costs have on gentrification. A Granger-causality test is then employed to look at the causal relationship between crime rates in the city and the gentrification process in individual police service areas