Application of probability analysis to assess nitrogen supply to grain crops in northern Australia

Grain yield and protein of cereal crops in northern Australia provides a useful indicator of the supply of available nitrogen (N) to the crop. Our intention was to utilize these principles on a site-specific basis through an associated probabilistic framework to identify the likelihood that grain yield was limited by N supply. Yield and protein data were taken at harvest from sorghum, wheat and barley crops near Dalby, southern Queensland, in 1999. Considerable variation was found in grain yield for the 3 crops, but less so for grain protein. Frequency-response relationships, derived from historical multiple N field experiments, were applied to identify areas where grain yield was limited by N supply. This approach indicated that there was a 60% or higher likelihood that plant-available N was yield-limiting for 17, 23, and 26% of the area sown to sorghum, wheat and barley, respectively. These areas were not necessarily those where crop yield was relatively low. Calculation of N removal and N supply, using N transfer efficiency relationships, verified that those areas with a high likelihood of response to N had considerably lower supplies of N compared to other areas. The application of probability analysis offers a unique strategy to identify within-field areas where N supply could be yield-limiting, and provides a rationale for predicting the spatial variation and likely range of N supplies for successive seasons