Two decades of tuberculosis surveillance reveal disease spread, high levels of exposure and mortality and marked variation in disease progression in wild meerkats

Infections with tuberculosis (TB)-causing agents of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex threaten human, livestock and wildlife health globally due to the high capacity to cross trans-species boundaries. Tuberculosis is a cryptic disease characterized by prolonged, sometimes lifelong subclinical infections, complicating disease monitoring. Consequently, our understanding of infection risk, disease progression, and mortality across species affected by TB remains limited. The TB agent Mycobacterium suricattae was first recorded in the late 1990s in a wild population of meerkats inhabiting the Kalahari in South Africa and has since spread considerably, becoming a common cause of meerkat mortality. This offers an opportunity to document the epidemiology of naturally spreading TB in a wild population. Here, we synthesize more than 25 years’ worth of TB reporting and social interaction data across 3420 individuals to track disease spread, and quantify rates of TB social exposure, progression, and mortality. We found that most meerkats had been exposed to the pathogen within eight years of first detection in the study area, with exposure reaching up to 95% of the population. Approximately one quarter of exposed individuals progressed to clinical TB stages, followed by physical deterioration and death within a few months. Since emergence, 11.6% of deaths were attributed to TB, although the true toll of TB-related mortality is likely higher. Lastly, we observed marked variation in disease progression among individuals, suggesting inter-individual differences in both TB susceptibility and resistance. Our results highlight that TB prevalence and mortality could be higher than previously reported, particularly in species or populations with complex social group dynamics. Long-term studies, such as the present one, allow us to assess temporal variation in disease prevalence and progression and quantify exposure, which is rarely measured in wildlife. Long-term studies are highly valuable tools to explore disease emergence and ecology and study host–pathogen co-evolutionary dynamics in general, and its impact on social mammals