Exploring COVID-19 conspiracy theories: education, religiosity, trust in scientists, and political orientation in 26 European countries

Abstract The COVID-19 virus disseminated globally at an accelerated pace, culminating in a worldwide pandemic; it engendered a proliferation of spurious information and a plethora of misinformation and conspiracy theories (CTs). While many factors contributing to the propensity for embracing conspiracy ideation have been delineated, the foremost determinant influencing individuals’ proclivity towards CT endorsement appears to be their level of educational attainment. This research aimed to assess the moderating effect of religiosity, trust in scientists, and political orientation on the impact of education level on people’s belief in COVID-19-related CTs in Europe by considering both individual-level and country-level contextual covariates of CT. We analysed data from the newest European Social Survey (ESS10) round conducted between September 2020 and September 2022 in 26 countries. We found religiosity weakens, and trust in scientists strengthens the effect of education, while the impact of political orientation is not straightforward. The result also demonstrates a significant negative correlation between the aggregate country-level data of the respondents supporting CTs and the level of vaccination and cumulative excess deaths in Europe. We concluded with a recommendation that planning effective public health strategies and campaigns are insufficient when based solely on people’s education, as individuals’ beliefs moderate the effect of education