A risk model : trial

神奈川県茅ヶ崎市 近年の社会情勢の不安定はリスクマネジメントの普及と合わせて、用語リスクは日常用語化の傾向にある。併せて、危機管理における危機との混用、単なる恐れの感性、単なる発生へのおそれ、国際規格類での定義の相違等々、概念と用法の多方面にわたる混乱がみられる。ここでは本来の事象の発生確率から移行する状態の特異領域としてとらえ、リスクモデルを提案し、概念の整理と整合をはかる。リスクを管理することを目標とした場合に提供できるリスクの取り扱上での適正を吟味し、議論する。又 今後の課題として、考えられる状態の集合体からの定常から臨界状態を経て異常状態へと遷移するモデルの展開について課題を提示する。 In recent business depression and social uneasiness, the term RISK is becoming popular and appearing into journals and news papers as a daily word. Through this social and world wide phenomena, we can observe various usage of term RISK such as confusing with crisis, just sensitivity of fear or threat, or different definitions into the relevant standards. Here a risk model is proposed and discussed for a solition of this situation. And it means what is probability or frequency of occurrences and their consequences of a event is a state of abnormal, disorder or wrong, it is defined as a stete of concerned system as abnormal state from normal state to dangerous state via critical state. And its theroritical background, benifits and feasible concept for unity for resolution of the current social conffusion are discussed for a objective for corrective risk management system. Finally, extension of this model for more precise estimation is suggested as sequential probability process with condition as Bayisian approach. as next step of this study