Role of fatty liver index in risk-stratifying comorbid disease outcomes in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Background & Aims: Population screening for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and associated comorbidities remains an unaddressed clinical need. We aimed to assess the utility of the fatty liver index (FLI) for risk stratification of NAFLD and related comorbidities using the UK Biobank. Methods: Electronic health records and liver MRI-proton density fat fraction (PDFF) were used to define NAFLD cases. FLI was calculated and individuals with high alcohol intake and other liver diseases were excluded. Using listwise deletion analysis, the area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of FLI for NAFLD risk was determined. Thereafter, time-dependent covariate-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate FLI’s risk stratification potential for comorbidities of interest. Results: FLI was derived for 327,800 individuals with a median age of 58 (IQR 51.5-64.5), of whom 59.8% were females. Using Perspectum Diagnostics and AMRA protocols as references, FLI identified the risk of NAFLD with AUROCs (95% CI, n) of 0.858 (0.848-0.867, n = 7,566) and 0.851 (0.844-0.856, n = 10,777), respectively. Intermediate and high-risk FLI was associated with increased cardiometabolic and malignant disease. In the first 3 years, high-risk FLI conferred an increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% CI) of ischaemic heart disease (2.14, 1.94-2.36), hypertension (2.84, 2.70-2.98), type 2 diabetes mellitus (4.55, 4.04-5.12), dyslipidaemia (2.48, 2.32-2.64), ischaemic stroke (1.31, 1.20-1.42) and hepatic malignancy (1.69, 1.23-2.30). FLI was not associated with risk of extrahepatic malignancy but was associated with a higher risk of specific cancers (colon, upper gastrointestinal and breast). All-cause mortality was similarly stratified by FLI, independently of non-invasive fibrosis scores. Conclusions: FLI identifies NAFLD and holds potential for the risk stratification of cardiometabolic and malignant disease outcomes (including some extrahepatic malignancies), as well as all-cause mortality. Its use in population screening for primary and secondary prevention of NAFLD should be considered. Impact and implications: Our analysis using the UK Biobank study shows the potential of the fatty liver index as a risk stratification tool for identifying the risk of developing NAFLD, ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, hepatic malignancy, specific metabolism-related malignancies and all-cause mortality. These results suggest that the fatty liver index should be considered as a non-invasive steatosis score that may help guide primary prevention strategies for NAFLD and related outcomes