Revisiting hydro-ecological impacts of climate change on a restored floodplain wetland via hydrological/hydraulic modelling and the UK Climate Projections 2018 scenarios
- Thompson, Julian R.
- Clilverd, Hannah M.
- Zheng, Jiaxuan
- Iravani, Honeyeh
- Sayer, Carl D.
- Heppell, Catherine M.
- Axmacher, Jan C.
DOIAbstract
The hydro-ecological impacts of 40 UK Climate Projections 2018 scenarios on a restored lowland England river floodplain are assessed using a MIKE SHE / MIKE 11 model. Annual precipitation declines for 60% of scenarios (range: -26%–21%, with small, <5%, declines for the central probability level). Potential evapotranspiration increases for all probability levels except the most extreme, very unlikely, 10% level (range: -4%–43%, central probability 9%–20%) Mean, peak and low river discharges are reduced for all but the extreme 90% probability level. Reduced frequency of bankfull discharge dominates (at least halved for the central probability level). Floodplain inundation declines for over 97% of 320 scenario-events. Winter water table levels...
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