Paths forward for sustainable maritime transport : A techno-economic optimization framework for next generation vessels

Climate change is omnipresent in our society. It is known that climate change is occurring, and that additional warming is unavoidable. Therefore, the decarbonization of industrial sectors has gained increased importance in the last years. The maritime transport sector is one of the most targeted industries as it contributes to approximately 3% of global GHG emissions. Nevertheless, maritime transport accounts for up to 80% of the global trade volume, underlying its importance for the world economy. A technical feasible and reliable solution is, thus, essential for the shipping industry to reach the ambitious climate goals established by the Paris Agreement. In the past, the maritim sector has been highly reliant on fossil fuels, using heavy fuel oil as the major energy input. Heavy fuel oil has been the most dominant fuel in the industry due to its cost advantage and high energy density. Recent developments in the maritime industry promote the emergence of dual fuel engines (e.g. LNG and HFO). Even though increased efficiencies and low carbon fuels can reduce maritime pollution, they cannot achieve carbon neutrality. In the long-term, it will be necessary to implement zero emission fuels including green hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and LNG. The implementation of new sustainable technologies and fuels in the maritime sector will however depend on their economic competitiveness compared to alternative solutions. Therefore, the following research question arises: When can sustainable maritime transport achieve cost parity compared to conventional technologies? The master thesis investigates the break-even point of sustainable shipping technologies in order to achieve climate targets. Thereby, the focus is set on the life cycle costs of different maritime technologies. A techno-economic framework is necessary to decide on the most suitable options for the industry in prospective years. The framework should be able to analyze current as well as prospective technologies, and guide during the technological decision-making process. Therefore, the definition of key performance indicators (KPI) is essential to set a standard for further assessments. The KPIs will be the main value to compare technologies from an economic perspective. In order to answer the research question a case study is developed. The case study is formed by an extensive literature review on current and next-generation sustainable energy systems for vessels. A priority lies on potential carbon neutral technologies and engines such as fuel cells and battery systems based on a predetermined shipping route and shipping class. In a first step, a simulation model for the developed case is established. The output of the simulation model will then be used in the techno-economic framework, connecting components of the system through thermodynamic and physical properties. In a last step, cost functions translate the systems behavior into economic behavior. Once the case study is analyzed, a statistical model is applied on the results in order to evaluate the system under varying boundary conditions. This sensitivity approach is further necessary to underline the impact of the aforementioned KPIs. By that, the robustness of the framework is tested and secured. Finally, the results of the analysis are explained and interpreted with regard to the research question. A conclusion is drawn regarding the potential economic benefits of sustainable maritime transport technologies within the light of potential market access.The results of the thesis are to be documented in a scientifically appropriate manner and discussed within the context of existing literature and regulatory targets for the industry