Power-Sharing and Voting: Conflict, Accountability and Electoral Behaviour at the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly Election

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.This dataset comprises the results of a survey of a cross section of the Northern Ireland population. Respondents were asked questions on a range of political attitudes and behaviour. The survey was conducted directly after the Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2016 and asks the following: full voting information as gathered via a mock ballot paper, full set of demographic questions including social class, religion, education, gender and suchlike, battery of political attitude questions on ethnonational, economic and moral themes, question on voting behaviour in the EU referendum, questions on political accountability, ethnic representation, candidate traits and other politically relevant questions. Background information on the Power-Sharing and Voting: Conflict, Accountability and Electoral Behaviour at the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly Election project: When citizens in Northern Ireland cast their vote in the 2015 Northern Ireland Assembly election, almost two decades had passed since the Good Friday/ Belfast Agreement of 1998 established devolution and power-sharing. Thus, a rigorous analysis of the 2015 Assembly election allows careful consideration of the impact of the 'peace process' and the associated implementation of power-sharing governing structures. The project investigates whether power-sharing has actually led to good quality electoral democracy for the people of Northern Ireland or has instead merely cemented and strengthened ethnic divisions. In the investigation, a number of specific questions are addressed.1) Have the power-sharing institutions maintained or reduced the importance of ethno-national (Protestant British versus Catholic Irish) campaigning and voting at election time? The study compares the strength of ethno-national voting over the 1998-2015 period by linking the 2015 study to earlier ESRC funded studies in 1998 and 2003. The project assesses whether there has been an increase over time in 'cross bloc' voting (Protestants giving lower preference votes to nationalist parties, or Catholics giving lower preference votes to unionist parties). Also, it assesses whether the importance of ethno-national ideology (voting on the basis of nationalist versus unionist beliefs) has become more or less important over time. Furthermore, it compares ethno-national ideology to non-conflict ideologies (such as economic left-right views or moral liberal-conservative views).2) Is electoral accountability possible? If there is only one party in government, it is easy for voters to identify who to hold responsible for government performance. In coalition governments it is harder for voters to clearly see which party to blame if things are going badly (or reward if things are going well). This difficulty is particularly acute when all of the parties are in Government and none are in Opposition, as is the case in Northern Ireland. We assess whether it is actually possible for voters to hold decision-makers to account in such a context.3) Is there an emotional basis to voting? Following on from questions 1 and 2 the project assesses the conditions under which voters rely on either ethno-national voting or peformance-based voting. It investigates the role of emotions and assess whether anger is associated with voting on the basis of the ethno-national conflict while fear is associated with performance-based voting.4) Does power-sharing discourage participation? Does the absence of a clear Opposition lead to reluctance to engage in politics? Also, does the sense that powersharing benefits one community over the other lead to alienation from politics, or non-electoral forms of political protest?5) What are Northern Ireland citizens' attitudes to political reform (such as developing a strong Opposition that would hold the Government to account, or the regulation of sensitive cultural matters such as flag flying and parades)? How do citizens form such attitudes? Why is it that disagreement with suggested reform can spiral into violent street protest?Answering these questions is important for understanding how democracy operates in the sensitive setting of Northern Ireland. The answers are also important for broader understanding of how to respond to violent ethnic conflict around the world. The 'Northern Ireland Model' is often held up as an impressive example of successful power-sharing and peace building. This analysis will provide a detailed critique of the quality of electoral democracy in the Northern Ireland example that will be important for peace builders around the world (including organisations such as the United Nations). The project will also maximise the relevance of the work for ordinary citizens in Northern Ireland, second level school teachers and students, Northern Ireland newspapers, documentary makers, and the Northern Ireland Assembly. Information about further research by the same team is available on the Queen's University Belfast Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016 webpages.