News Impact Curve for Stochastic Volatility Models

September 2012This paper proposes a new method to compute the news impact curve for stochastic volatility (SV) models. The new method incorporates the joint movement of return and volatility, which has been ignored by the extant literature, by simply adding a couple of steps to the Bayesian MCMC estimation procedures for SV models. This simple procedure is versatile and applicable to various SV type models. Contrary to the monotonic news impact functions in the extant literature, the new method gives a U-shaped news impact curve comparable to GARCH models. It also captures the volatility asymmetry for the asymmetric SV models.グローバルCOEプログラム = Global COE Program10 p