Growth and Diversification in the Russian Economy

This paper attempts to describe the further potential for growth and diversification in the Russian economy. First, it presents the author's forecast of the long run growth of the Russian economy for 2008-2020, based on his estimates of a production function. Second, this paper provides analyses of contributions of TFP and capital (supply side), earnings from terms-of-trade effects (income side) and demand for domestically produced goods (expenditure-demand side). Third, using revised input-output tables the official short term projections, it explores the present level of diversification of the Russian economy and provides a multi-sector growth-accounting analysis. Finally, this paper presents some preliminary observations on the role of auto industry in Russian diversification away from independence on oil and gas.本稿は，ロシア経済の成長と多様化を分析することをテーマとした試論である．まず，供給サイドからロシア経済成長の短中長期成長経路の予測を与える．次に，供給面では総要素生産性と資本蓄積，所得面では交易利得，支出面では国産品内需が成長のキイ要因であることを示す．さらに，再編成された産業連関表と成長統計ならびに経済発展省の中期予測から多様化の進展状況を確認する．その後，部門別の推計資本ストック増加率を用いた多部門成長会計分析により多様化の要因を検討する．最後に，自動車産業に注目して，その成長が多様化と経済全体に及ぼす役割を検討する