A Spatial Investigation of σ-Convergence in China

Current Version: March 21, 2006; First Version: January 13, 2006Using techniques of spatial econometrics, this paper investigates σ-convergence of provincial real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in China. The empirical evidence concludes that spatial dependence across regions is strong enough to distort the traditional measure of σ-convergence. This study focuses on the variation of per capita GDP that is dependent on the development processes of neighboring provinces and cities. This refinement of the conditional σ-convergence model specification allows for analysis of spatial dependence in the mean and variance. The corrected measure of σ-convergence in China indicates a lower level of dispersion in the economic development process. This implies a smaller divergence in real per capita GDP, although convergence across regions is still a challenging goal to achieve in the 2000s.21世紀COEプログラム = 21st-Century COE Program[revised]22 p