Regime confluence in socio-technical transitions: a study of connected, autonomous, shared and electric vehicles

This PhD research aims to investigate sustainable future automobility by using socio-technical transitions theory (STT). Automobility plays multi-functional roles in society not only as commuting tool but also serving tool for serving higher quality of life, freedom of movement, and increasingly is associated with environmentally friendly concepts. This emergent form of automobility integrates many aspects ranging from connectivity (C) between vehicles and to everything else, to vehicle automation (A), car sharing (S), and electronic powertrain (E), which ultimately may combine to provide automobility as an on-demand service. Therefore, these so-called ‘CASE’ (connected, autonomous, shared, electric) vehicles bridge automobility freedom of movement in physical ‘limited’ spaces with ‘unlimited’ virtual spaces into one seamless experience, fundamentally transforming the meaning of automobility. Hence, this research has the following issues to address: is it possible for the four features (CASE) to combine? If this becomes a prevalent trend, could they redefine automobility, and with what consequences? To answer the relevant research questions, mixed data collective methods have been conducted. In which, secondary data extracted mainly from governmental documents, companies’ official webpages, professional online websites, and the grey literature. Meanwhile, primary data via interviews are used to further verify the cases’ validity. Hence, 340 instances of CASE developments identified during the research have been collected to construct an empirical storyline supplemented with 33 in-depth interviews. Additionally, we have highlighted 7 corporate cases in the traditional automotive industry and 4 outsiders to illustrate the CASE transformation process. The main findings are: 1) network theory could supplement STT to provide insights into the relationships between ‘niche’ areas and the ‘regime’; 2) regime boundary dissolution and network reintegration help new niches emerge at regime level; 3) CASE concepts have allowed ‘outsiders’ to challenge automotive OEM incumbents; and 4) the automobility transformation pathway is following ‘dealignment - realignment’ pattern. The thesis concludes many individual initiatives have failed but some remain, finding a development path for a multiplicity of reasons (political, market-driven, corporate strategy or environmental requirements). These half-mature niches and networks will finally challenge existing rules and regulations and thus push society and technology forward to reach to another ‘balance’. However, to reach a new ‘balance’ is a huge challenge that requires to leverage different stake holders such as environment sustainability, policymakers, customers and of course car manufacturers