Transformational Scenario Planning: Learning from the Mont Fleur Case

This thesis explores the practice of transformative scenario planning and its relevance in today’s world. Anticipating the future and preparing for uncertainties have always been crucial concern for individuals and organisations. Foresight, as a methodological and systematic approach, helps in anticipating possible futures and increasing resilience to rapid changes. One of the practices within strategic foresight is scenario planning, which involves identifying different plausible realities and analysing the factors that influence them. However, transformative scenario planning goes beyond preparedness and aims to influence change by creating desired or avoiding unwanted futures. This research aims to explain the differences between scenario planning and transformative scenario planning, highlighting their methodologies from foresight perspective, based on the literature review of Adam Kahane, Shell scenarios and other relevant authors in the topic. The study focuses on showcasing the transformative scenario planning practice through the Mont Fleur exercise conducted in South Africa in 1991, led by Adam Kahane. His findings on the relevance of transformative scenario planning are examined in the context of the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. The study utilizes qualitative research methods, including a literature review covering books, articles, journals, videos interviews, and organisational websites related to foresight studies, transformative scenario planning, and the Mont Fleur exercise. Key sources include Kahane’s and Kees van der Heijden’s work on transformative scenario planning, as well as Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold’s guidebook on scenario planning. Insights from Nick Segal and additional academic articles contribute to gaining a comprehensive perspective on the subject. The findings of this research aim to shed light on the significance of transformative scenario planning in the present-day context, offering insights into the potential challenges and difficulties associated with its implementation. By examining the Mont Fleur case and comparing it with the current situation in Ukraine, this study aims to demonstrate the relevance and effectiveness of transformative scenario planning in influencing thinking and behaviour towards desired outcomes