Serbia’s Energy Dilemma: Navigating Geopolitical Tensions, Russian Ownership, and the Path to Renewable Transition

This policy brief delves into the complex web of challenges plaguing Serbia’s energy sector, examining the combination of events during the winter of 2021-2022 that triggered the current crisis. A breakdown at the Nikola Tesla Thermal Power Plant, exacerbated by underinvestment and mismanagement, collided with the global energy crisis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine further heightened concerns, revealing the vulnerabilities of Serbia’s energy supply, which relies heavily on Russian-owned entities. These events forced Serbia into unprecedented expenditures to secure energy supplies and reopened questions about its strategic orientation and energy transition. This study scrutinises the role of Russian ownership in Serbia’s energy landscape, mainly focusing on NIS Oil Company, and extends the analysis to broader energy transition dynamics and geopolitics. It sheds light on the historical context of Russian investments in oil and gas, their impact on Serbia’s energy security, and the complex interplay between Russian, Chinese, and Western interests, local politics, and environmental considerations. As Serbia grapples with a multifaceted energy crisis, potential pathways forward are identified, emphasising the need for diversification in gas suppliers, facilitating the transition to renewables, and navigating the geopolitical intricacies that intertwine with environmental concerns. The study underscores the pivotal role of EU and foreign actors in shaping Serbia’s energy future and offers recommendations for aligning national strategies with European energy transition objectives.With contributions by BiEPAG members Tena Prelec, Dimitar Bechev and Nikolaos Tzifakis