Evaluation of new vehicle technologies and new mobility services as sustainable urban transportation solutions

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2023Focusing on shared micromobility and the application of vehicle automation to shared mobility, this dissertation develops new approaches to evaluating sustainability impacts of new vehicle technologies and new mobility services. For new technologies to deliver sustainability impacts, they must be adopted by the traveling public, employed at scale in day-to-day use, and deployed in a way that delivers societal benefits. This dissertation seeks to understand the motivations for consumers to adopt new technologies, create a framework for predicting the growth in market share of a new transportation mode, and develop an analytical tool that can be used by city planners to quantify the potential benefits of supporting new mobility services in their communities. Chapter 2 provided a comprehensive literature review on micromobility trip generation and quantified the effects of vehicle availability, bike infrastructure, and first and last mile connection to transit when autonomous technology is available using a stated preference and revealed preference survey. Chapter 3 proposed a novel method of matching PUMS and LODES data to synthesize commute trips nationwide and proposed a simulation framework that can be flexibly implemented with other mode choice models, updated using advanced methods and newer data, and adapted to different geographic aggregation levels. Chapter 4 integrated findings and methods from Chapter 2 and 3 and developed a tool that uses real-world data to estimate ridership and associated sustainability impacts of micromobility services. Findings from this dissertation show that access to bikes/scooters and dedicated bike lanes are very important factors for micromobility trip generation. Results also suggest that autonomous technology can create new opportunities for micromobility services to attract and serve more riders. Applying the proposed demand and impact simulation framework, this dissertation sheds light on the potential for ridehailing service adoption in different parts of the country, in a future with driverless cars. The modeling framework and tools developed in the dissertation can also help regulators and researchers understand where new mobility services can make the biggest impacts on ridership, accessibility, and reducing emissions, to further assist transportation planning and policy making