Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change A World Climate Research Programme Call to Action

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world "that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind."This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.Fil: Findell, Kirsten L.. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,; Estados UnidosFil: Sutton, Rowan. National Centre For Atmospheric Science; Reino Unido. University of Reading; Reino UnidoFil: Caltabiano, Nico. World Meteorological Organization; SuizaFil: Brookshaw, Anca. European Centre For Medium-range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Heimbach, Patrick. University of Texas at Austin; Estados UnidosFil: Kimoto, Masahide. National Institute For Environmental Studies; JapónFil: Osprey, Scott. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Reino UnidoFil: Smith, Doug. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino UnidoFil: Risbey, James S.. Oceans & Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific And Indust; AustraliaFil: Wang, Zhuo. University of Illinois; Estados UnidosFil: Cheng, Lijing. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Díaz, Leandro Baltasar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; ArgentinaFil: Donat, Markus G.. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaFil: Ek, Michael. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Lee, June Yi. Pusan National University; Corea del Sur. Institute for Basic Science; Corea del SurFil: Minobe, Shoshiro. Hokkaido University; JapónFil: Rusticucci, Matilde Monica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Vitart, Frederic. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Reino UnidoFil: Wang, Lin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de Chin