Vietnam: A Reconstitution of its 20th Centuty Population History

Rapport de rechercheThis paper proposes an estimation of some 20th century demographic indicators for the Republic of Vietnam : age and sex specific population estimates, vital rates, life expectancy at birth, total fertility indice (If), and net migration rates from 1909 through 1989. It takes its sources in French colonial archives and recent censuses, surveys and other research results. The reconstitution has been done stepwise using an inverse projection method. Each step has been specified, considering particularly the data it uses. Special attention has been paid to the choice of the model life table family. The reconstitution shows close fits to the 1979 and (by construction) 1989 census results. It majors Hirschman's et al. (1995) war mortality estimates and Merli's (1997) net out-migration estimates (whose age schedules have been adopted). It lowers recent Vietnamese life expectancy estimates, and majors Gourou's (1936) pre-war vital rates. The most unexpected result is the important mid-century fertility decline (1934-1954), that shows up in all scenarios.Ce document propose une estimation de quelques indicateurs démographiques pour la République du Vietnam entre 1909 et 1989. Il s'appuie sur des sources françaises et sur des recensements et des enquêtes plus récents. La reconstitution réduit les estimations récentes de l'espérance de vie vietnamienne et augmente celles de Gourou d'avant-guerre. Le résultat le plus surprenant est le recul important de la fécondité générale sur la période 1934-1954