Impact assessments in volcanic areas - The Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei cases studies

The emergency planning of areas subjected to volcanic risk requires the evaluation of impact induced on different element exposed (people, buildings, infrastructures, economy, etc.) by different volcanic phenomena (precursor earthquakes, ash fall, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tsunami, ballistics, landslides, etc.). In this paper, the authors describe the methodology developed at PLINIVS Study Centre (University of Naples Federico II, Italy), Centre of Competence of the Italian Civil Protection, in the framework of volcanic risk concerning the Campania Region volcanoes. The approach is based on the probabilistic analyses of risk and impact scenarios. It allows quantifying the potential losses consequent to possible volcanic eruptions. The results are strongly dependent on the hypothesis assumed and on the parameters used as inputs, providing impact scenarios with a probabilistic estimation and uncertainty treatment. The results constitute an useful tool for emergency planners and decision makers in the evaluation of the resources needed to improve the preparedness measures and to implement at technically feasible and cost-effective mitigation measures on buildings and infrastructure. The scope is to reduce the expected damage, such as the seismic retrofitting of vulnerable buildings along the escape routes identified in the evacuation plan, which might fail due to the presence of debris from collapsed buildings which can affect the practicability of roads. The paper is focussed on the relevant applications performed by PLINIVS simulation model for the preparation and updating of the emergency plan for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei areas