Macroeconomic effects of the war in Ukraine : example of the eurozone

Rad se usredotočuje na negativni šok u opskrbi plinom izazvan ratom u Ukrajini i njegove duboke ekonomske implikacije za gospodarstvo eurozone. Plin je značajan za Europu jer se koristi za proizvodnju energije, grijanje, industrijske procese i podršku obnovljivim izvorima energije. Obzirom da se Europska unija snažno oslanjala na uvoz ruskih energenata sve do eskalacije konflikta, rat i s njim povezane sankcije, mijenjaju dinamiku međunarodne trgovine i suradnje. Geopolitički sukob u Ukrajini rezultirao je učincima koji odgovaraju predviđanjima plinskog šoka Šalter Swan modela, a navedeni učinci manifestirali su se u eurozoni tijekom 2022. godine. Spomenuti plinski šok uzrokovao je značajan porast inflacije, smanjenje neto izvoza i značajno usporavanje BDP-a u eurozoni. Revizije prognoza međunarodnih institucija za inflaciju, BDP i vanjsku trgovinu potvrđuju rezultate modela i ukazuju na negativan utjecaj plinskog šoka na ekonomsku aktivnost.The paper focuses on the negative gas supply shock caused by the war in Ukraine and its profound economic implications for the Eurozone economy. Gas is important for Europe because it is used for power generation, heating, industrial processes and support for renewable energy sources. Given that the European Union relied heavily on the import of Russian energy until the escalation of the conflict, the war and related sanctions are changing the dynamics of international trade and cooperation. The geopolitical conflict in Ukraine resulted in effects corresponding to the Salter Swan model's gas shock predictions, and these effects manifested themselves in the Eurozone during 2022. The aforementioned gas shock caused a significant increase in inflation, a decrease in net exports and a significant slowdown in GDP in the eurozone. Revisions of the forecasts of international institutions for inflation, GDP and foreign trade confirm the results of the model and indicate the negative impact of the gas shock on economic activity