Global Climate Change Alters the Survival Potential of Freshwater Invasive Species

Global climate change is predicted to alter environments and allow some freshwater species to survive in new areas. Estimates of potentially invasive species’ survival probabilities provide valuable information for resource managers to develop effective invasion mitigation strategies. The probability of species’ survival is commonly estimated by quantifying the similarity in climates between species’ existing ranges (source region) and an area of introduction (recipient region). I quantified the climate similarity between all pairs of source-recipient global watersheds and freshwater ecoregions under historical and future climate scenarios. Results indicated climate change will alter climate similarities between source-recipient pairs with varying intensity depending on the pairing and, consequently, influence survival probabilities at a global scale. Moreover, estimates of climate similarity tended to be higher for larger spatial scales. Risk assessments of non-native species estimating survival probabilities would benefit from incorporating climate change and applying a multi-scale approach to better inform management decisions.M.Sc