Nitrogen and phosphorus control carbon sequestration in agricultural ecosystems: modelling carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus balances at the Breton Plots with ecosys under historical and future climates

Perennial legumes in crop rotations increase soil C sequestration from greater productivity with N2 fixation. Here, we corroborated increases in soil organic carbon (SOC) and harvests modelled in 5 yr wheat–oats–barley–alfalfa/brome–alfalfa/brome (5Y) vs. 2 yr wheat–fallow (WF) rotations with those measured from 1929 to 2018. Harvest and SOC gains of 100–150 g C m−2 yr−1 and 15–25 g C m−2 yr−1 were modelled and measured in 5Y vs. WF rotations with different fertilizer and manure amendments. Modelled gains were closely related to annualized rates of N2 fixation by alfalfa of 8–10 g N m−2 yr−1. However, N2 fixation also drove increases in modelled N2O emissions of ca. 0.06 g N m−2 yr−1, which partially offset gains in SOC. Gains in harvest, SOC, and N2O emissions of 60–90 g C m−2 yr−1, 15 g C m−2 yr−1, and 0.05 g N m−2 yr−1 were modelled and measured in both rotations with amendments of N + P relative to unamended treatments. Harvest and SOC gains were smaller, and leaching and N2O losses larger, with amendments of N without P. After 100 yr of RCP 8.5 climate change, harvests in WF changed little from those in baseline runs, whereas those in 5Y rose with N + P because of increased N2 fixation. SOC declined in WF with all amendments and could only be raised in 5Y with N + P amendments. These model findings indicated the importance of N2 fixation and P amendments in determining responses of agroecosystem productivity and C sequestration to climate change.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author