Weather, Climate (Change) and Zoo Visitation: A Case Study of the Toronto Zoo (Ontario, Canada)

The statistical relationship between weather, climate and zoo visitation was determined and the impact of projected climate change was assessed, based on a case study of the Toronto Zoo (Ontario, Canada). This research was conducted in three independent study stages. The first study determined the weather sensitivity and temperature thresholds associated with visitation to the zoo, based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Temperature was found to be the most influential weather variable, positively affecting daily zoo visitation; however, when temperatures exceeded 26 째C in the shoulder season or 28 째C in the peak season, negative effects on visitation were observed. The second study used a modelling approach to assess the impact of projected climate change on future visitation to the zoo. The output from a series of seasonal multivariate regression models suggests that annual visitation to the zoo will likely increase over the course of the 21st century due to projected climate change. The main increases in visitation were projected during the shoulder seasons, with some potential losses during the peak season, especially if warming exceeds 3.5 째C. The third study used a multi-year temporal climate analogue approach to explore zoo visitor responses to seasonal climatic anomalies and reassess the impacts of projected climate change on zoo visitation. When anomalously warm winters and springs occurred within the historical record, total zoo visitation in those seasons increased significantly. Conversely, when anomalously warm summers occurred, visitation decreased significantly. Temperature anomalies in the autumn season did not result in any significant differences in visitation. Zoo visitation was determined to be highly weather sensitive, with both the modelling and analogue approaches suggesting that projected climate change will have significant but disparate impacts on visitation across the seasons, demonstrating both opportunities and threats for zoo managers and city planners.Ph.D