Projecting the effectiveness of RotaTeq® against rotavirus-related hospitalisations in Brazil

RotaTeq® (Merck & Company, Inc, Whitehouse Station, NJ, USA) is an oral pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5) that has shown high and consistent efficacy in preventing rotavirus gastroenteritis (RGE) in randomised clinical trials previously conducted in industrialised countries with high medical care resources. To date, the efficacy and effectiveness data for RV5 are available in some Latin American countries, but not Brazil. In this analysis, we projected the effectiveness of RV5 in terms of the percentage reduction in RGE-related hospitalisations among children less than five years of age in four regions of Brazil, using a previously validated mathematical model. The model inputs included hospital-based rotavirus surveillance data from Goiânia, Porto Alegre, Salvador and São Paulo from 2005-2006, which provided the proportions of rotavirus attributable to serotypes G1, G2, G3, G4 and G9, and published rotavirus serotype-specific efficacy from the Rotavirus Efficacy and Safety Trial. The model projected an overall percentage reduction of 93% in RGE-related hospitalisations, with an estimated annual reduction in RGE-related hospitalisations between 42,991-77,383 in the four combined regions of Brazil. These results suggest that RV5 could substantially prevent RGE-related hospitalisations in Brazil