The Politics of Population Health in Canada: Testing Provincial Welfare Generosity and Leftist Politics as Macro-social Determinants of Population Health

This dissertation pools time-series and cross-section data among Canadian provinces to examine: (1) whether provincial welfare generosity (health, social services, and education expenditures), power resources and political parties (unions and left, centre, and right political parties), and political democracy (voter turnout and women in government) affects population health; (2) whether the effect of leftist politics channels through or combines with provincial welfare generosity to affect population health; and (3) whether provinces cluster into distinct political regimes which are predictive of population health. Data is retrieved from the Canadian Socio-Economic Information Management System (CANSIM) II Tables from 1976 to 2008 and Canadian Parliamentary Guides from various years. Population health is measured using total, male, and female age-standardized mortality rates. Estimation techniques include Prais-Winsten regressions with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE), a first-order autocorrelation correction model (AR1), and fixed unit effects. Hierarchical cluster analysis is used to identify how provinces cluster into distinct regimes. Primary findings are three-fold. First, provincial welfare generosity has a significant impact in lowering mortality rates, net of other factors, such as demographic and economic variables. Second, the political power of left and centre political parties and women in government have significant negative effects on mortality rates. Whereas left political parties and women in government combine with provincial welfare generosity to improve population health, the effect of centre political parties is channeled through provincial expenditures. Third, provinces cluster into three distinct regimes based on left political party power and women in government: 1) leftist (Saskatchewan, British Columbia, and Manitoba); 2) centre-left (Ontario and Quebec); and 3) conservative (Alberta, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland). Compared to the leftist regime, centre-left and conservative provinces have significantly higher mortality rates; however, provincial welfare generosity accounts for most of the observed inter-provincial differences in population health.Ph