The Social Democratic Future of Saskatchewan: An Analysis of the Electoral Geography of Saskatoon and Regina, Saskatchewan in 2003 and 2007

In November 2007 the right of centre Saskatchewan Party defeated Saskatchewan’s social democratic party, which had been in government for seventeen years. Unlike previous defeats, the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) loss in 2007 clearly showed that a new intra-urban political polarization in Saskatoon and Regina had emerged with the outer suburbs abandoning the NDP and the core areas maintaining previous levels of support. This study employs correlation analysis and logistic and linear regression analysis, using survey data from the 2003 and 2007 general election campaigns from Saskatchewan. Urban zones are constructed based on the morphological (urban form) hypothesis in order to create categories for spatial analysis. The different types of urban places are analyzed incorporating survey and Statscan data. Statistically significant differences between the urban zones are discussed in light of possible mechanisms found in the literature in order to explain recent political turns in Saskatchewan.MAS