Deforestation, causes and sustainable solutions with reference to India

grantor: University of TorontoThis thesis develops a system dynamics simulation model of the deforestation process. It focuses on two measures of deforestation that must be considered simultaneous!y, total forest area (TFA) a geophysical measure and forest biomass (FBM) a biophysical measure. The thesis argues that deforestation is a complex and dynamic process and should therefore be examined with an integrated approach that takes into account the interrelatedness of various elements especially those between the forest sector and other impacting sectors. A system of forests, and four other sectors--agriculture, energy, socio-economic, and livestock--that compete for forest land or forest produce is developed. The process of deforestation is seen in terms of dynamic interaction between all five sectors of the model. Initially, a simple-forest sector only, model is developed to familiarize the reader with the usage of system dynamics concepts. The model is enhanced and expanded to incorporate the remaining four sectors. Three versions of the multi-sector model are developed. Model A is based only on the biophysical flows of interactions, Model B, includes the market responses in addition to the biophysical linkages, and Model C, which in addition to the biophysical and market linkages, also incorporates dynamic functions. Model C is validated by comparing the simulated behaviors of key elements such as forest area, population, livestock number, non-commercial energy consumption, agriculture productivity, and agriculture production, with data for India. Sensitivity analyses examine the impacts of non-forestry policies on deforestation, and explore policies that may sustain forests in India. The simulation results show that if present trends in policies to ameliorate deforestation remain unchanged the depletion of forests in India will continue and within next two decades India will be completely deforested in terms of its biomass. The most important insight obtained from these results is that policies focusing exclusively on the forestry sector will not be sufficient to sustain forests; it is essential to develop supporting policies in the other interacting sectors. Moreover, the results suggest that complete reliance on market forces will not yield sustainability because of the lack of well functioning forestry markets, the operation of non-market incentives, and the slow response times in forestry investments in India. Only a combination of forest sector polices with supporting policies in all other sectors that impact on the forestry sector can prevent deforestation and yield sustainable forestry development.Ph.D