Local extinction risk by global warming of three species of lizards from Patagonia

Recently Sinervo et al. (2010, Science 328:894–899) reported declines of lizard biodiversity due to local warming trends and altered thermal niches. Herein, we applied the Sinervo et al. (2010) physiological model to predict the local extinction risk of three species of lizards from Patagonia. Whereas the previous model used a single equation (for the extinctions of Sceloporus serrifer Cope, 1886 in the Yucatan Peninsula) relating environmental temperatures (Te) to hours of restriction, the period when lizards are forced into retreat sites because environmental temperatures are too high, we measured habitat-specific equations for the Tes of each species. We analyzed the vulnerability of Homonota darwinii Boulenger, 1885, Liolaemus pictus Müller and Hellmich, 1939 and L. elongatus Koslowsky, 1896 to climate change considering thermal physiological constraints on activity during the reproductive period. While Sinervo et al. (2010) predicted that the Phyllodactylidae family will not suffer impacts on climate change, our physiological model predicted that 20% of the gecko H. darwinii populations could become extinct by 2080. The physiological model also predicted that 15% of L. pictus and 26.5% of L. elongatus populations could become extinct by 2080. The most vulnerable populations are those located near the northern and eastern boundaries of their distributions.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author