Incorporating the effects of upstream ice jam release in the prediction of flood levels in the Hay River Delta, Canada

The Town of Hay River, located in the Northwest Territories, Canada, is vulnerable to ice jam flooding occurring in the adjacent Hay River delta. The most extreme flooding events have occurred when ice jams in the channels of the delta were pushed downstream towards the mouth at Great Slave Lake. This movement has been linked to incoming waves from ice jam release in the upstream reaches of the Hay River. This study incorporated the effect of an upstream ice jam release wave into the prediction of ice jam caused flood levels in the delta by integrating three one-dimensional models. The method was validated with observed breakup events and then used to simulate various combinations of ice and water conditions in the river and the delta. Multiple linear regression analyses were applied to the results to develop a prediction tool for assessing ice jam flood risk.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author