Uncertainty assessment in aboveground biomass estimation at the regional scale using a new method considering both sampling error and model error

Uncertainty associated with multiple sources of error exists in biomass estimation over large areas. This uncertainty affects the accuracy of the resultant biomass estimates. A new method that introduces Taylor series principles into a Monte Carlo simulation procedure was proposed and developed for estimating regional-scale aboveground biomass, along with quantifying the corresponding uncertainty arising from both sampling and model predictions. Additionally, the effect of sample size on estimates during model fitting was studied based on the new method in order to determine whether the effect of the size of the calibration data set can be neglected when the number of simulations is sufficiently large. The results revealed that the proposed method not only produces more reliable estimates of both biomass and uncertainty but also effectively and separately quantifies the uncertainties associated with different sources of error. The new method also reduced the effect of model uncertainty on final estimates. The uncertainty that was associated with model error increased significantly with decreasing sample sizes during model fitting, and the error was not reduced by increasing the number of Monte Carlo simulations.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author