Can trees at high elevations compensate for growth reductions at low elevations due to climate warming?

Radial tree stem growth of Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica, Pinus sylvestris and Pinus cembra was monitored from 2012 until 2015 across sites in Austria with high resolution dendrometers. Seasonal cumulative diameter increment was modeled using a hierarchical nonlinear mixed-effects model framework based on a logistic growth curve. In the dry and warm year 2015 the average annual diameter increment of 0.30 cm decreased by 50% on lower elevation sites and by 10% on higher elevation sites. In the cool and moist year 2014, Norway spruce achieved a higher annual diameter increment than European beech, whereas the opposite occurred in the dry and warm years 2013 and 2015. In the mixed beech-spruce stand, beech's consumptive water-use strategy has obviously caused intensified stress for spruce in these drought periods. On higher elevation sites Norway spruce reacted more sensitively to climate fluctuation compared with stone pine, but overall reactions were only weak. Productivity varied strongly dependent on the social tree status with dominant and intermediate trees suffering more from drought. As warming and drought lowers increment rates on lower elevation sites and as trees on higher elevation sites react less flexible, productivity losses are expected for Austrian forests due to climate warming.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author